Who is the real culprit of Kashmir?
A must reading for every INDIAN.
Attack on Uri army camp in India, by Pakistani terrorists.
Response..
It can be economic blockade.
It can be water stoppage for Sindhu and five rivers of
Punjab going into Pakistan, or Surgical strikes inside.
But the big question is
Can India attack Pakistan?
But still 69 years of handling of Jammu and Kashmir by India
is something we have to look at right now. Can India afford to hit Pakistan
where it hurts the most, for Pakistan's obsession with Jihadi terror export all
these decades?
It is must deeper than that- Geo politics!
Pakistan had even offered to give up East Pakistan in 1950s,
in return for Jammu and Kashmir on the sidelines of official discussions with
India! So definitely it is not religion or Kashmiris it is much deeper than
that. It was water sources then, but now much deeper
Yes, water is an issue.
It is China. It is China and CPEC: The "thing" is
the CPEC: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. If you look at it closely suddenly
everything falls into place. Kashmir, Balochistan, India's unwillingness to strike,
silence of international community, everything else. Pakistan is just a
front.
The real sponsor is hiding behind.
Pakistan sponsors
terrorism to get Kashmir. It is not that simple. Pakistan kept the Kashmir
flame burning until the 1990s to meet their ends, when China conceived the CPEC
and decided to take over. A bit on the CPEC as no one seems to have heard about
it. China has a huge geographic handicap: no access to southern world oceans.
So Chinese shipments from Europe, Middle East, Africa have
to travel all the way around India, Malacca and ASEAN. China has serious
problems with most countries in that region due to its aggressive military
posture
Why Pakistan
is so important for Chinese economy? What if China could get a route through
Pakistan to access the Arabian Sea?
That, is the
CPEC. A corridor of highways and railways will run from Kashgar in China to
Gwadar in Pakistan (Baluchistan) on the Arabian sea near Iran border. And ALL
the infrastructure and associated stuff for CPEC will be constructed for
Pakistan by China, free of cost or for negligible loans.
What is CPEC?
Four Six-lane
Expressways from north to south Pakistan, four different routes. All main
railway lines being upgraded to 160 kph double. A six to eight lane super
expressway Karachi to Gwadar and Hyderabad Innumerable coal, thermal, solar and
hydro power plants all across Pakistan. All of Gwadar, including a mega
international airport! Then Hospitals, schools, colleges, tech institutes, even
a Metro line in Lahore!
But why is Jammu and Kashmir involved here?
Now, on the Karakoram highway, this is where it matters most
for India. It connects China and Pakistan, through India! Through Jammu and
Kashmir, which legally acceded to India in 1947 October. Gilgit Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir
state, which legally belongs to India, but illegally occupied by Pakistan. Keep
in mind, China also occupies illegally the eastern and northern part of Jammu
and Kashmir - Shaksgam valley (gifted by Pakistan in 1960s) and Aksai Chin
(occupied by China in 1950s when it annexed Tibet).
The highway passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan
Occupied Kashmir. Pakistan and China are connected through Pakistan Occupied
Kashmir (PoK for short). Pakistan calls this Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and
Kashmir, as Northern Territories sometimes.
A high-capacity
highway across the Himalayas!
Now, though the CPEC is a recent thing, the idea had taken
birth long back. The Karakoram highway started building in 1959, opened in
1979! Possibly Pakistan had refused China access to Gwadar then as they could.
But now they have no other choice but handover to China.
Why CPEC?
OIL:
Gwadar is just 400 km away from Muscat and 500 from the
Strait of Hormuz through which all Gulf oil passes. 12 hours at sea! Proximity
to Africa: China virtually owns much of Africa today. Billions in investment,
buys natural resources. Nothing better than this. Pakistan as a market: China
will flood Pakistan and Gulf with its cheap products and make a windfall there
too. Proximity to new friend Sri Lanka. If USA/UK (control Malacca strait -
Singapore) or India in Indian ocean decide to choke it, China will have no
problem as it has CPEC.
But, all of CPEC and China's ambitions bearing fruit depends
on the Karakoram highway. That depends on PoK continued to be occupied by
Pakistan.
Money Involved:
With the CPEC, China has sunk close to 50 BILLION Dollars in
Pakistan. Of course, China gets free access to this entire infrastructure in
Pakistan. With this, 20% of Pakistan's GDP is now Chinese. China has Pakistan
now so much that Pakistan can now be China's 24th province. With so much
invested and at stake, China wouldn't even think twice about ruthlessly
suppressing any attack on Pakistan, because they own it now.
Doesn't
India know all this?
Pakistan is small fry. China is not.
Who would side with India?
Mostly nobody. Why? Because China is involved. How
international geopolitics work, most don't get that either. USA wants to
support us because China makes it nervous. But US corporations are over
invested in China, so Uncle Sam will look the other way. Russia - Don't even
think about it. Putin has enough troubles at home, and India's pandering to
Obama hasn't got him amused. Europe will sit just and watch (because China),
and all of the Middle East will (clandestinely) support Pakistan for obvious
reasons (Islam).
International
friendships are always based on "how can I benefit by allying",
"what terrible can this guy do to me if I don't ally".
So, India will left out cold if it were to as much as touch
Pakistan. We will mostly have to take on BOTH Pakistan and China. Mostly, can
India take on both Pakistan and China alone? From two (or three) flanks? We are
surrounded by China's friends. What do we do? Dunno.
A bit more on the Karakoram highway: 1962, remember? What if
the Chinese were testing the Indian waters before building the highway? China
could've walked through India. Still, they withdrew. They were only testing
India's resolve to defend PoK if it came to that. We have all but written off
PoK.
Here is the Khunjerab Pass (PoK): the "top" of
India, the border between India and China, but now Pakistan.
A sign in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir -
Here is the Karakoram highway near Gilgit in India (PoK) and
under construction somewhere in the mountains. It should be obvious by now that
China does NOT want India to reclaim its land lost to Pakistan in 1947 and 1948
- the strategic Karakoram ranges in Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir.
It is as simple as that!
China owns Pakistan for most part today: CPEC and all
associated stuff are called "China-Pakistan Friendship" something or
the other. No friendship there. Just Chinese business. China is not doing
business with Pakistan. It is running its business in Pakistan. It is running
Pakistan. China pays for protection. If things get push to shove, China can
tell US: "We will nationalize your businesses if you don't tell India to
withdraw". What will we do?
What we should first realize is that there is no Pakistan.
There is only China. Pakistan is just a front. We should deal accordingly. It
is in China's interest to keep Kashmir burning. If there is peace in the
valley, India MIGHT set its eyes on PoK. Chinese know that India has a strong
Prime Minister today who can think of that. China does not want India to even
think of getting PoK back. Of course, China did not light the Kashmir fire, but
it certainly looks like it is them who keeps it burning that no consensus is
reached. So, in addition to water, religion, ego, demographics and so on there
is one more reason behind the Kashmir unrest: China and CPEC.
Is dialogue with Pakistan sensible? It is utter foolishness
to think that in such a case we can resolve this through dialogue! We talk one
thing while issue is another! Issue is NOT what we think is the issue! We and
our govt should first understand this. I am sure they have. Hopefully they
aren't helpless. China is waging a proxy-proxy-deceptive war which we cannot
understand or prove or blame. We need to mobilize some other way.
Baluchistan's
role:
Why Pakistan got all worked up when India raised
Balochistan? Gwadar is in Balochistan. Much of CPEC infra passes through
Balochistan. The CPEC is China's hope at lifting its sagging economy and
securing its strategic position in the region. Its future maybe depends on it.
Karakoram- Hindukush- Pamir region since ancient times been strategically
sensitive. The Silk Road. China wants control of the new Silk Road. If India
were to take PoK we would squeeze the Karakoram Highway shut. No more CPEC,
Silk Road. China done for. That is the whole game. Highways are primary
military conduits rather than civilian. Whoever controls the highway controls
the region.
Ultimately.. Pakistan's ultimate aim is to establish an
Islamic caliphate. Apart from this China helps them through CPEC. You might disagree with Modi et al but please
support the govt right now in whatever action it takes. Politicking can wait.
Wait two more months before taking any harsh decisions. Things might change
post November.
